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	<title>Blue Landworks LLC &#187; economy</title>
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	<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com</link>
	<description>Metro-Atlanta Civil Engineering and Land Surveying Services</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 16 Nov 2011 00:40:55 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>How Gwinnett County is creating a win-win scenario for redevelopment projects</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2011/03/how-gwinnett-county-is-creating-a-win-win-scenario-for-redevelopment-projects/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2011/03/how-gwinnett-county-is-creating-a-win-win-scenario-for-redevelopment-projects/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Mar 2011 20:31:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[development advisory committee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gwinnett county]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[infrastructure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stormwater]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bluelandworks.com/?p=613</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Gwinnett County, recognizing that redevelopment provides both economic and environmental advantages over greenfield development, is making development regulation changes to distinguish stormwater regulations between redevelopment and greenfield development.]]></description>
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<td width="247" valign="top"><strong>The three components of a stormwater facility:</strong></p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Water Quality</strong>: Any development which constructs new or replacement of more than 5,000 square feet of impervious area is required to provide  water quality treatment. The idea behind water quality treatment is to provide removal of suspended solids in stormwater in the most common storm events.</li>
<li><strong>Channel   Protection</strong>: Also known as the 1-year storm, this requires the development to detain the 1-year storm for a period of 24 hours to avoid the scouring and   degradation of stream channels.</li>
<li><strong>Detention</strong>:   This requires the development to detain stormwater for the 2- through 25-year   storm events to their pre-development flows.</li>
</ol>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Redevelopment projects present several unique challenges and opportunities. Among the most challenging hurdles that many redevelopment projects face is that of stormwater management &#8211; both water quality and water quantity (detention). Typically older developments, if they have any stormwater treatment at all, have an undersized facility that provides detention only. Current regulations in Gwinnett County, and across most of the metro Atlanta area, require those redeveloping parcels to provide the same level of stormwater management as is required for a greenfield development. In other words, the site, even if it is covered with buildings and parking lots, is viewed as though it is still in a forested, undisturbed state for stormwater management purposes. Gwinnett County, recognizing that redevelopment provides both economic and environmental advantages over greenfield development, is making development regulation changes to distinguish stormwater regulations between redevelopment and greenfield development.</p>
<p>Greenfield developments will continue to have to provide all three components of a stormwater facility (see table). A greenfield development is property still in an undeveloped state and has not had any impact on downstream properties.</p>
<p>Redevelopment projects, on the other hand, have impacted downstream properties as much as they likely can. Fully atoning for the sins of the past by providing the full host of stormwater management, while a noble idea, is not realistic on many projects. Redevelopment projects will have the opportunity to apply for a variance from providing channel protection and/or detention. Developed parcels, particularly those which are candidates for redevelopment, have already impacted their downstream channels. Providing channel protection won’t accomplish its intended purpose. Providing detention in an already urbanized zone only makes sense if there is existing flooding downstream during the more typical storm events. Otherwise it, too, doesn’t accomplish its intended purpose.</p>
<p>All projects will have to provide water quality, as required by state law. This makes sense, as water quality is an on-going impact in both greenfield development and existing developments. Unlike channel protection, stormwater runoff doesn’t reach a peak pollution point and then find a new stability or gradually reduce. Providing a measure of water quality on every project is the prudent thing to do, even if state law didn’t make it so.</p>
<p>This change to the Development Regulations will provide a significant new tool to redevelopment projects by addressing one of the most expensive and difficult challenges that a project faces. The variance, if approved, would allow a project to waive either all or a portion of channel protection and/or detention requirements. Once a variance is approved, the developer would pay a fee to Gwinnett County that would be utilized in the same fashion as fees from the County’s stream buffer variance. These fees are used in stream restoration projects throughout Gwinnett County. The fee will be calculated on the volume of stormwater management that is waived. (i.e. if 10,000 cubic feet of stormwater management is waived, multiply the 10,000 cubic feet by the cost per cubic foot to determine the fee amount.) The fee amount is currently under consideration and will eventually be set by the Board of Commissioners.</p>
<p><em>Gwinnett Village Community Improvement District</em> and <em>Gwinnett Place Community Improvement District</em> conducted three case studies to assess the impact of the new regulations on sample redevelopment projects. In those cases, it was assumed that a variance would be sought for both the entirety of channel protection and detention. It was also assumed that the impervious area in the redevelopment scenario would be equal to its present condition. Two of the three cases were conducted on project sizes where many redevelopment projects are anticipated &#8211; sites in the half acre range. Typically, smaller redevelopment sites provide the most challenges for providing stormwater management due to the lack of land necessary to provide all three stormwater components. In most cases, stormwater management will be provided in an underground facility. These facilities can only be placed under parking lots or open space and reduce the buildable area on a site.</p>
<p>The variance can only be obtained for up to the existing impervious area on the project site. If a developer proposes to increase the impervious area beyond what presently exists, the developer will be responsible for providing all three stormwater components for the increased area. The developer will not be able to obtain a variance from the stormwater regulations for the increased impervious area and must maintain or improve the existing downstream conditions. The developer can still apply for a variance for the portion of the project up to the existing impervious area.</p>
<p>It is important to point out that these regulations only apply to the unincorporated portion of Gwinnett County. Projects within the cities located in Gwinnett County, should they chose to also follow this process, will have to adopt the changes into their development regulations. Since the cities represent some of the most urbanized portions of Gwinnett County, these regulation changes, if adopted, would enhance the ability for revitalization within their boundaries.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that these changes will provide a new tool for developers to add to their tool box to satisfy stormwater management requirements for redevelopment projects. This new tool will allow Gwinnett County to provide a significant advantage to developers looking to do redevelopment projects in the metro Atlanta area. At the same time, it will improve the environment by providing an additional funding source for improving the streams throughout the county. Of course, redevelopment projects themselves provide other significant environmental advantages over greenfield development by utilizing existing infrastructure and reducing consumption of undeveloped property.  Finally, it supports the significant economic impact that redevelopment projects provide by revitalizing the aging areas of the county while increasing employment and property values. This is one of those rare situations when new government regulations provide a win-win scenario for all involved. Gwinnett County should be applauded for its forward thinking and proactive efforts to address one of the biggest challenges that many projects face.</p>
<p><em>Taylor Anderson, PE, is President of Blue Landworks LLC. Blue Landworks provides civil engineering, land surveying and development consulting across the southeast. Taylor is the chairman of the committee assisting Gwinnett County in re-writing their development regulations on stormwater for redevelopment projects. The opinions expressed in this article are his and are not intended to represent those of Gwinnett County or the committee. A <a href="http://www.gwinnettchamber.org/Redevelopment-News-Letter.1960.0.html">version of this article</a> appeared on the Gwinnett Chamber&#8217;s Redevelopment Newsletter Website.</em></p>
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		<title>Navigating contracts from public partners</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2010/03/navigating-contracts-from-public-partners/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2010/03/navigating-contracts-from-public-partners/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Mar 2010 17:43:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[insurance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bluelandworks.com/?p=526</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One of the many challenges facing engineers in this economy are the onerous contracts that many public institutions are using for their design professional. In the current economy, in which many engineering firms are literally desperate for any work, governments are taking advantage of the situation to transfer unmitigated amounts of risk and responsibility to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One of the many challenges facing engineers in this economy are the onerous contracts that many public institutions are using for their design professional. In the current economy, in which many engineering firms are literally desperate for any work, governments are taking advantage of the situation to transfer unmitigated amounts of risk and responsibility to the design professional. So much so, in fact, that our insurance carrier, XL Insurance, issued an e-mail bulletin on the matter.</p>
<blockquote><p>Recently the claim department of the Design Professional group of XL Insurance has seen an up tick of onerous public contracts. Public entities are using tough new contracts as a way to transfer inordinate amounts of project risk onto design professionals&#8217; shoulders, jeopardize their insurance and make demands that design firms cannot reasonably fulfill.</p>
<p>Best advice: Read the contract. It sounds obvious, but many A/Es assume that the contract for a new project is the same one they received from the same entity on the last project. Onerous clauses and phrases that you negotiated out of one contract have a way of finding their way back into another. </p></blockquote>
<p>In many contracts, engineers are accepting risk that their insurance will not cover. Worse still, many engineers don&#8217;t realize what they&#8217;ve done. It&#8217;s important, as an industry, to negotiate out those portions of the contract that transfer risk and responsibility to the engineer that the engineer has no control over. Often times this includes statements such as taking responsibility for the contractor&#8217;s actions, even if construction administration is not part of the contract. By accepting these unreasonable provisions in contracts, engineers are setting precedent for bad terms that will be carried forward in the future.</p>
<p>XL Insurance even makes the following strong statement regarding municipal contracts:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Public agencies have tremendous power and many delight in using it.</strong> [Emphasis added] However, persistence, reason and the knowledge that you were chosen based on your track record can get you past more than a few government attorneys. When you&#8217;re tempted to sign on the dotted line, think about your exposure to serious liability for circumstances you&#8217;d be rendered powerless to control. As tough as it may be to get a good public contract, it&#8217;s even more difficult to defend yourself under a bad one.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Commercial Real Estate Bottoming?</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2010/02/commercial-real-estate-bottoming/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2010/02/commercial-real-estate-bottoming/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Feb 2010 02:09:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commercial market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bluelandworks.com/?p=522</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From CNBC on February 23rd, an update on the commercial real estate market: Moody&#8217;s Commercial Property Index showed an uptick of 4.1 percent in December. Neal Elkin, of Real Estate Analytics, and Harvey Green, of Marcus &#038; Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, share their insight.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><object id="cnbcplayer" height="380" width="400" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" ><param name="type" value="application/x-shockwave-flash"/><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true"/><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"/>From CNBC on February 23rd, an update on the commercial real estate market: </p>
<blockquote><p>
Moody&#8217;s Commercial Property Index showed an uptick of 4.1 percent in December. Neal Elkin, of Real Estate Analytics, and Harvey Green, of Marcus &#038; Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, share their insight.<br />
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]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Fed&#039;s Beige Book for June 10 in the Southeast</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/06/feds-beige-book-for-june-10-in-the-southeast/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/06/feds-beige-book-for-june-10-in-the-southeast/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:26:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.tayloranderson.com/?p=373</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Federal Reserve&#8217;s Beige Book, which tracks anecdotal evidence in the economy in each of the Fed&#8217;s districts, had the following notes related to civil engineering and land development in District 6, the southeast: Real Estate and Construction Reports from Realtors indicated that existing home sales were stabilizing overall. Florida contacts noted that the steady [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Federal Reserve&#8217;s Beige Book, which tracks anecdotal evidence in the economy in each of the Fed&#8217;s districts, had <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/Beigebook/2009/20090610/6.htm">the following notes</a> related to civil engineering and land development in District 6, the southeast:</p>
<blockquote><p>Real Estate and Construction<br />
Reports from Realtors indicated that existing home sales were stabilizing overall. Florida contacts noted that the steady improvement in sales over the past several months moderated somewhat in April, whereas other parts of the District experienced minor gains over the month. Homebuilders noted that new home inventories were trending down on a year-over-year basis as construction remained at low levels and new home sales improved modestly. Home sales prices continued to decline according to most reports. The outlook for sales strengthened in April according to most Realtor and homebuilder contacts.</p>
<p>Commercial real estate activity remained weak. Vacancy rates continued to rise in many parts of the District, putting downward pressure on rents, most notably in the retail sector. Contractors reported more projects being postponed or cancelled. Commercial real estate contacts anticipate more space will become vacant in the coming months and that construction will continue to slow.<br />
&#8230;<br />
Employment and Prices<br />
Labor market conditions continued to be weak. Many firms reported additional cuts in hours or had instituted mandatory unpaid days off for some staff. State and local governments were also reducing payrolls because of budgetary pressure. However, the pace of layoffs appears to have slowed, as fewer firms reported layoffs than earlier in the year. There were also scattered reports of increased temp hiring, although several contacts noted that these positions were largely seasonal in nature.</p>
<p>Homebuilders and manufacturing firms continued to report that prices paid for both raw materials and imported finished goods were below year-earlier levels. Retailers noted a reduction in price discounting compared to previous months, and a majority of merchants reported that selling prices were generally on par with a year earlier.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>So much housing news &#8211; where to start?</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/05/so-much-housing-news-where-to-start/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/05/so-much-housing-news-where-to-start/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 12:06:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[atlanta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[residential market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.tayloranderson.com/?p=358</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The amount of news on the housing front over the last week or so is staggering. If you&#8217;re keeping up with the articles I share, you&#8217;re on top of the game. (If you use an RSS reader, use this feed&#8230;) However, I wanted to add a little to the mix of articles and organize them [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The amount of news on the housing front over the last week or so is staggering. If you&#8217;re keeping up with <a href="https://www.google.com/reader/shared/04260202489058141178">the articles I share</a>, you&#8217;re on top of the game. (If you use an RSS reader, use <a href="http://www.google.com/reader/public/atom/user%2F04260202489058141178%2Fstate%2Fcom.google%2Fbroadcast">this feed</a>&#8230;) However, I wanted to add a little to the mix of articles and organize them to get a better picture of what is happening.</p>
<h2><strong>Home Prices</strong></h2>
<p>Home prices continue their downward trend. Prices in Atlanta have <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/05/25/daily31.html?ana=from_rss">declined 15.7%</a> from May 2008 to now. They have also lost 1.7% since February. Atlanta continues to &#8220;perform&#8221; better than most of the other major markets except a select few.</p>
<p>The Case Shiller index shows <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/05/26/a-look-at-case-shiller-numbers-by-metro-area-9/">Atlanta stands at about 105</a>. That means that homes have only appreciated 5% since January 2000. This puts Altanta near the bottom of housing appreciation of the 20 major markets that Case Shiller tracks. Only Cleveland (96) and Detroit (71) have performed worse over the past nine years. That&#8217;s fairly poor &#8211; other southeast cities that the index tracks are Charlotte (119) and Miami (149) have fared significantly better.</p>
<p>Despite the pessimism of the Case Shiller numbers for Atlanta, Steve Palm of SmartNumbers <a href="http://www.ajc.com/services/content/business/stories/2009/05/26/caseshiller_homesales_atlanta.html?cxtype=rss&amp;cxsvc=7&amp;cxcat=6">told the AJC</a> that home prices hit a bottom in February.</p>
<blockquote><p>“Case-Shiller is a great survey, but you just can’t read too much into that,” said Steve Palm, president of SmartNumbers, a real estate research firm in Marietta. “February was still the bottom, and I say that because we have every [home loan] closing tracked, so I know February was the bottom.”</p>
<p>Palm said the average April sale price was up $10,000 over March, which is “a very good sign.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Finally, the National Association of Realtors says that homes <a href="http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2009051502?OpenDocument&amp;WT.cg_n=RMO&amp;WT.cg_s=RSSDaily">are now undervalued</a>. Be careful, though, how much stock you put into NAR&#8217;s information. I&#8217;ve included a link to their information just to be complete &#8211; I&#8217;m very skeptical of anything that NAR puts out.</p>
<p>There is also concern that the home price trend is now pushing into <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/05/27/home-price-declines-spread-to-formerly-stable-markets/">&#8220;formerly stable markets&#8221;</a>. (Stable markets is the WSJ&#8217;s term &#8211; not mine. Sounds like an oxymoron to me.) This was inevitable, though. Overall, economist Phil Dales expects housing prices to <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/05/26/home-prices-significantly-undervalued-should-renters-buy/">drop another 5-10% yet</a>.</p>
<h2>Home Sales</h2>
<p>Despite Georgia having the<a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/05/18/daily30.html?ana=from_rss"> lowest mortgage rates in the country</a>, and rates overall are practically the lowest they have ever been, economist John Lonski says they <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/05/21/why-record-low-mortgage-rates-are-not-low-enough/">aren&#8217;t low enough</a> to bring equilbrium in the market.</p>
<p>However, home sales in April were <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/05/25/daily30.html?ana=from_rss">up 2.9% over March</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Most of the sales are taking place in lower price ranges and activity is beginning to pick up in the midprice ranges, but high-end home sales remain sluggish,&#8221; said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. &#8220;The <span class="story_clink">Federal Reserve</span> needs to help restore liquidity for the jumbo mortgage market by buying these loans under the TALF program.&#8221;</p>
<p>The number of first time buyers declined to 40 percent in April, a sign that NAR says indicates more repeat buyers are getting back into the market. And the number of people actively looking for a home to buy is up 14 percent from a year ago.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/05/27/economists-react-home-resales-at-bottom-prices-still-have-further-to-fall/">This article</a> in the Wall Street Journal has reactions from a number of economists on the housing market, including a lot of very good data &#8211; too numerous to reprint here. There is a concern that we may have hit a <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/05/19/concerns-about-a-false-bottom-in-housing/">false bottom in housing</a> however, as foreclosures were up 40% from March in April in California. The always optimistic NAR says that <a href="http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2009052703?OpenDocument&amp;WT.cg_n=RMO&amp;WT.cg_s=RSSDaily">home sales will bottom</a> in the second quarter of this year.</p>
<h2>Home Construction</h2>
<p>Looking at bad news optimistically, <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/stories/2009/05/18/daily17.html?ana=from_rss">home builder confidence rose</a> in April from March from 12 to 14. While it did rise, anything under 50 indicates that market conditions are poor. Builder expectations over the next six months rose from 24 to 27.</p>
<p>Home construction in general has gone down significantly from even last year. Generally, <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2009/05/18/daily36.html?ana=from_rss">permits and starts are down </a>for April 2009 about 50%. The number of <a href="http://www.therealestatebloggers.com/2009/05/27/zombie-subdivisions-the-living-dead-of-the-real-estate-market/">&#8220;Zombie Subdivisions&#8221;</a> is a major concern too &#8211; with lot inventory so high that even in the <a href="http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20090523/ARTICLES/905229942/1004?Title=Zombie-zones-Stalled-housing-sites-litter-local-landscape">usually stable coastal markets along the east coast</a>, they&#8217;re at least a couple of years away from seeing shovels and hammers.</p>
<p>Again, <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/05/19/economists-react-good-news-lost-in-the-commotion-on-housing-starts/">this article in the WSJ</a> has a ton of data on home construction and is very much worth the read. Real estate investor Sam Zell <a href="http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2009051905?OpenDocument&amp;WT.cg_n=RMO&amp;WT.cg_s=RSSDaily">sees the recovery happening this summer</a> because of demand returning. In support of that, at least one firm expects a big recovery in housing because new construction is off so much that <a href="http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2009/5/26/big_housing_recovery_on_the_way">demand is going to out pace supply</a> very soon.</p>
<h2>Bottom Line</h2>
<p>I would strongly reccomend reading the linked articles and drawing your own conclusions on housing market. There is an incredible amount of information there &#8211; too much to even summarize here.</p>
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		<title>Moving forward on infrastructure</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/04/moving-forward-on-infrastructure/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/04/moving-forward-on-infrastructure/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2009 13:27:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ASCE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[infrastructure]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.tayloranderson.com/?p=312</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[America&#8217;s infrastructure is in desperate need of attention and if there is indeed one area where government serves the people &#8211; all the people &#8211; it&#8217;s in the responsibility of providing safe, reliable and environmentally sound infrastructure. Unfortunately, it has almost failed in that duty. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, our infrastructure [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>America&#8217;s infrastructure is in desperate need of attention and if there is indeed one area where government serves the people &#8211; all the people &#8211; it&#8217;s in the responsibility of providing safe, reliable and environmentally sound infrastructure. Unfortunately, it has almost failed in that duty. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, our infrastructure recieved an <a href="http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/">overall grade of D</a>.</p>
<p>The good news is that the majority of Americans realize the problems we face &#8211; even if the politicians don&#8217;t. A <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/02/16/daily10.html?ana=from_rss">recent survey</a> indicated that 68 percent of Americans would be willing to pay more taxes to upgrade the nation&#8217;s infrastructure. A full 81 percent say that spending on infrastructure will define whether the next generation of Americans will define whether we do or do not prosper as a nation.</p>
<p>Think about that for a minute &#8211; nearly 7 in 10 Americans are willing to pay <b>more</b> taxes to address our country&#8217;s infrastructure. That speaks volumes &#8211; particularly in today&#8217;s economic environment. The fact that 4 in 5 American&#8217;s realize the importance of our infrastructure should really give you an optimistic view of the priorities we are setting for our children. It is long past time that those in control of the purse strings pay attention to this critical issue.</p>
<p>Much was made of the infrastructure portion of the economic stimulus package passed last month. Unfortunately, only about <a href="http://www.propublica.org/special/the-stimulus-plan-a-detailed-list-of-spending#stim_transportation">$98 billion</a> of the $787 billion (or a little better than 12%) has been programmed for infrastructure improvements. Now, $98 billion is nothing to turn your nose up at. But consider that repairing the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_bridge_collapse">I-35 bridge that collapsed in Minnesota</a> cost nearly $200 million to rebuild. Since Minnesota is getting just $500 million in stimulus funds, that bridge alone would have consumed <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/stories/2009/03/02/story1.html?ana=from_rss">nearly 40% of the state&#8217;s infrastructure stimulus funds</a>.</p>
<p>As Matt Barcus at CivilEngineeringCentral.com wonders, <a href="http://civilengineeringcentral.wordpress.com/2009/03/11/will-our-infrastructure-ever-make-honor-roll/">will our infrastructure every make honor roll</a>? He chronicles ASCE&#8217;s grades on the nation&#8217;s infrastructure over the past 20 plus years. Mr. Barcus also asks some interesting questions in regards to the findings.</p>
<blockquote>
<ul>
<li>What would happen to the civil engineering industry if all these categories were given A’s &#038; B’s?</li>
<li>Would funding for infrastructure projects  disappear until lower grades were given? </li>
<li>And if that was the case, would ASCE be doing their members and the industry a dis-service, by reporting anything other than a crumbling infrastructure?  </li>
<li>Would ASCE really  mislead the government and the U.S citizens by being over-dramatic with their evaluation of the infrastructure in order to spend tax-payer money on civil engineering and infrastructure projects?</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<p>The ASCE could easily be accused of scaremongering and being self serving &#8211; after all, its members (of which I am not one) would be the direct beneficiaries of perhaps trillions in additional government spending. In his blog, structural engineer Graeme Sharpe, PE points out that the way ASCE determined the grades was, ironically, <a href="http://www.aplaceofsense.com/2009_01_01_archive.html">not set in engineering principles</a>. That is, an engineer uses facts and reasoning to come up with an solution to a complex problem. Now, Mr. Sharpe&#8217;s blog was written in January &#8211; before the full report from ASCE came out. Since then, the specifics of the report card have come out. He has posted <a href="http://www.aplaceofsense.com/2009/03/asces-infrastructure-report.html">a more recent blog</a> on the subject in which he continues to criticize ASCE, although it&#8217;s not clear if he has read the full report.</p>
<blockquote><p>Because they have no official right to set policy in this matter, ASCE is acting as a lobbyist group. And what are they lobbying for? More money. They want the US public to spend more money on civil engineering projects. Who will this benefit? Well, that&#8217;s a complicated issue. If it results in &#8220;bridges to nowhere&#8221; then additional spending won&#8217;t benefit anyone but builders and engineers. Then 20 years down the road those unneeded bridges and roads will be &#8220;crumbling&#8221; and used to justify more spending. The ability for this report to be pushed in front of the public to proclaim how much we need more bridges and superhighways is another reason I hate it.</p>
<p>The final reason I just wish ASCE would quit this is because it makes an implicit appeal (sometimes explicit) that spending more on infrastructure projects will provide more safety for the public. This is downright dangerous. If the last report card from 2005 had somehow convinced lawmakers to invest USD$2Trillion into all these projects, could we have averted the most famous disasters since that time? Would Minnesota&#8217;s I-35W bridge still be up? Would the city of New Orleans have been spared? The answer is no. But I have still seen these issues used to justify additional infrastructure spending.</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#8217;s fairly strong rhetoric &#8211; and his insistence that if the money had been spent as ASCE suggested that some of the more infamous disasters still would not have been avoided. I&#8217;m not sure what Mr. Sharpe based this conclusion on. From the 2005 report card, ASCE advocates the very policies that may (of course it&#8217;s impossible to say it for sure would have been avoided) have <a href="http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/page.cfm?id=22#policy">prevented the bridge collapse in Minnesota</a> or the <a href="http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2005/page.cfm?id=23">failed levees in New Orleans</a>. Mr. Sharpe is also vague on details of why he &#8220;hates it&#8221;. If he is suggesting that we don&#8217;t need more capacity on our roadways, then I don&#8217;t think his hate is based in reality.</p>
<p>ASCE&#8217;s report card is a rather comprehensive document &#8211; certainly they advocate more bridges and increasing capacity on our roadways. Because we need them. But they just as strongly advocate repairs, improvements and alternative modes of transportation outside of the car including <a href="http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/fact-sheet/transit">mass transit</a>, <a href="http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/fact-sheet/rail">rail</a> and <a href="http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/fact-sheet/aviation">aviation</a>.</p>
<p>We can&#8217;t pretend that utopia can be achieved by simply ignoring the realities of today.</p>
<p>On our way there, we, unfortunately, have to take baby steps. Ignoring our capacity problem because it may encourage the use of the personal vehicle is folly. The personal vehicle is going to be part of our culture for at least the next several decades because that is how our nation has developed. For better or worse, that is what it is and we can&#8217;t simply pretend ignoring the problem is the answer to it.</p>
<p>As an engineer that lives in a fast growing city with numerous infrastructure problems, I will say the substance of ASCE&#8217;s report on the nation&#8217;s infrastructure appears to based in fact and sound reasoning. Certainly the grading system may seem a bit hokey and alarmist &#8211; but it appeals to those for which the report was written. In order for the non-engineer to gain an understanding of where an engineer places the current condition of our infrastructure you must be able communicate in a manner that the intended audience can digest and react to. After all, we&#8217;ve seen how a <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvnwOjDjnH4">1,100 page report</a> is accepted. Just imagine an 1,100 page report filled with engineer speak.</p>
<p>In the next blog, I&#8217;ll focus on the infrastructure of metro-Atlanta and, by extension, its impact across much of the southeast.</p>
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		<title>Looking into Atlanta&#039;s land development future</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/02/looking-into-atlantas-land-development-future/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/02/looking-into-atlantas-land-development-future/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Feb 2009 02:21:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[atlanta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[barack obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[industrial development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[social land development]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.tayloranderson.com/?p=302</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As the recession takes a firm grip on Atlanta land development, what does the future look like for this once burgeoning beacon of land development? Getting out the crystal ball, also known as the Atlanta Business Chronicle, and putting a few stories together, we can start to see what&#8217;s in store. Atlanta&#8217;s skyline will likely [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As the recession takes a firm grip on Atlanta land development, what does the future look like for this once burgeoning beacon of land development? Getting out the crystal ball, also known as the Atlanta Business Chronicle, and putting a few stories together, we can start to see what&#8217;s in store.</p>
<p>Atlanta&#8217;s skyline will likely <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/othercities/atlanta/stories/2009/02/09/focus2.html?b=1234155600^1773922">remain unchanged</a> for the next decade or so.</p>
<blockquote><p>“When will we see the next 50-story building in Buckhead? I would guess that if we see another 50-story building there in the next 10 years, I would be surprised,” said Clark Gore, market director of Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. “The skyline is impacted by where we are in the recovery.”
</p></blockquote>
<p>These is substantial risk in speculative buildings right now and developers are only going forward with projects that have a significant amount of pre-leases in place. There is even talk that LEED certification for buildings will practically be a prerequisite going forward. This makes sense because LEED projects typically are more expensive on the front end, but the back end payoff would appear large because of the points scored for location, reuse of materials and, generally, a more thoughtful approach to a project. LEED certification for buildings seems to be a good litmus checklist for going forward on a project, regardless if the developer&#8217;s intention is to be &#8220;green&#8221;.</p>
<p>As Brian Leary, vice president of design and development for Atlantic Station LLC, points out, these types of projects won&#8217;t be exclusively inside the perimeter.</p>
<blockquote><p>Areas that already offer infrastructure and allow for more dense development will be well-positioned to take advantage of an economic recovery. Those locations don’t just include prominent submarkets such as Buckhead, Midtown and Perimeter Center, but downtowns in Suwanee and Duluth and other suburban areas that offer an opportunity for a higher quality of life.</p></blockquote>
<p>Another area of strength for the Atlanta market will be the industrial distribution hubs that have been springing up along the interstate corridors for a number of years now. That trend is <a href="http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/othercities/atlanta/stories/2009/02/09/focus4.html?b=1234155600^1773943">expected to continue</a> as the Port of Savannah expands.</p>
<blockquote><p>“When it settles down, we’ll start seeing growth because there’s no new space out there to compete,” said Dave Watson, senior vice president at Grubb &#038; Ellis Co.</p>
<p>It’s also likely to help make industrial real estate here attractive to foreign buyers seeking solid investments.</p>
<p>“There’s going to be a glut of distressed sales and some other opportunities,” said Mike Gray, senior vice president with Panattoni Construction Inc.</p></blockquote>
<p>Currently, Atlanta&#8217;s industrial market has a <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/02/09/daily125.html?ana=from_rss">17.4% vacancy rate</a>.</p>
<p>So, we&#8217;re likely to see, perhaps, something that I discussed in <a href="http://www.tayloranderson.com/2008/12/16/back-to-the-future-a-move-to-social-land-development/">an earlier blog</a> &#8211; a move towards social land development. President Obama signaled that he is in <a href="http://www.therealestatebloggers.com/2009/02/13/is-suburbia-and-exurbia-threatened-by-president-obama/">favor of this trend</a>. Although, I think his view is overly limited to existing urban centers and fails to see the thriving and successful suburban town centers that are also being created.</p>
<p>In my next blog, we&#8217;ll explore the infrastructure side of the future of Atlanta. Infrastructure will be the key to many city&#8217;s success or failure in the coming decade. Failure to address the key infrastructure needs of a city will cause it to die. Fortunately, there are some strong voices in metro Atlanta for addressing the area&#8217;s sorely lacking infrastructure.</p>
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		<title>How to keep up-to-date quickly on land development in the southeast and add hours back to your day</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/01/how-to-keep-up-to-date-quickly-on-land-development-in-the-southeast-and-add-hours-back-to-your-day/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/01/how-to-keep-up-to-date-quickly-on-land-development-in-the-southeast-and-add-hours-back-to-your-day/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 31 Jan 2009 11:08:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[atlanta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.tayloranderson.com/?p=298</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How&#8217;s that for a title? One amazing tool that many folks don&#8217;t know about or understand is called an RSS feed. This blog has one. And I&#8217;ve even set one up to feed the most current news in land development, with an obvious focus on the southeast and, in particular, the southeast. But what is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How&#8217;s that for a title?</p>
<p>One amazing tool that many folks don&#8217;t know about or understand is called an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSS_(file_format)">RSS feed</a>. This blog has one. And I&#8217;ve even set one up to feed the most current news in land development, with an obvious focus on the southeast and, in particular, the southeast. But what is it?</p>
<p>First, let&#8217;s define the acronym. RSS stands for Really Simple Syndication. In order to do anything with an RSS feed, you need an RSS reader. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of RSS readers. If you mouse over the &#8220;subscribe&#8221; button on the right, you&#8217;ll see many of the most popular readers.</p>
<p>But why use an RSS feed?</p>
<p>Most importantly, it saves you time like you&#8217;d never believe. I am able to read the AJC, New York Times, nearly every Business Chronicle in the United States, the Wall Street Journal, several blogs and other smaller newspapers with about a 15-20 minute investment each day. And the best part of all of that is that I never miss an article.</p>
<p>How is that possible?</p>
<p>The RSS reader loads every article for you automatically. There is no wasted time visiting dozens (hundreds?) of websites. You don&#8217;t have to figure out what&#8217;s been posted since you last visited. You don&#8217;t have to click through categories to find what you want to read.</p>
<p>What do I use?</p>
<p>I use Google Reader because of its super clean interface and ease of use. Here is <a href="http://googlereader.blogspot.com/2009/01/google-reader-for-beginners.html">an article and short video</a> on how to use Google Reader.</p>
<p>With that part out of the way, here&#8217;s another reason to use an RSS reader &#8211; my reading list on the right side of this page titled &#8220;Blue Blog Bits&#8221;. If you&#8217;re stubborn and don&#8217;t want to utilize an RSS reader, you can still take advantage of the reading list. However, you&#8217;ll only get the six most current articles that I&#8217;ve highlighted. As I said earlier, I read dozens of sources. Those sources produce around 500+ articles a day. I sift through those sources and share the most pertinent and interesting articles in my reading list. Those articles deal entirely with land development (of all sorts&#8230;) and, to a lesser extent, the economy. And, for the most part, I only highlight economic articles that I see as having an impact on the land development industry. No, you won&#8217;t find out that XYZ Corporation just laid off 130,000 employees &#8211; there&#8217;s plenty of that places elsewhere you can subscribe to. But it will let you know what economists think of the economic stimulus package. Basically, if you&#8217;re in the land development industry (especially in the southeast and Atlanta), my reading list feed will save you an incredible amount of time and get you up to date on what&#8217;s happening in our industry from multiple sources.</p>
<p>So, go find an RSS reader and subscribe to, at a minimum, these two feeds:</p>
<ul>
<li>http://feeds.feedburner.com/blueblogbits</li>
<li>http://feeds.feedburner.com/bluelandworksllc</li>
</ul>
<p>Those two feeds, in order, are &#8220;Blue Blog Bits&#8221; and &#8220;The Blue Blog&#8221;.</p>
<p>I promise that if you&#8217;re wasting time surfing to multiple news websites every day, this will add several minutes (hours?) back to your day. Give it a try for a week. Then, leave a comment here and let me know how it&#8217;s going.</p>
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		<title>The 2009 Residential Real Estate Market</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/01/the-2009-residential-real-estate-market/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2009/01/the-2009-residential-real-estate-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:23:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[residential market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.tayloranderson.com/?p=295</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What is 2009 shaping up like in the residential real estate market? That&#8217;s the question that many are trying to figure out, and while nobody knows where we will be this time next year, we can look at a few things that may give us a glimpse of what it likely will be like. First, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What is 2009 shaping up like in the residential real estate market? That&#8217;s the question that many are trying to figure out, and while nobody knows where we will be this time next year, we can look at a few things that may give us a glimpse of what it likely will be like.</p>
<p>First, the theory behind the ever increasing need for housing is, of course, population growth. Estimates indicate that the U.S. population <a href="http://www.ajc.com/services/content/news/stories/2008/12/29/us_census.html?cxtype=rss&amp;cxsvc=7&amp;cxcat=15">grew by 1 percent last year</a> to 305,529,237 people. One percent would equate to adding a little over 3 million people to the U.S. last year. And, as is so often said, they have to live somewhere. The big questions? Where and in what?</p>
<p>2008 saw record decreases in home values, and they are expected to fall even further in 2009. Unfortunately, this is a near certainty that the prices will fall by as much or more than 2008 because further job losses are expected throughout the year. A <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123064533193442343.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us">report in the Wall Street Journal</a> indicates that the value of homes dropped 18% nationwide from October 2007 to October 2008. For those of us in the Atlanta market, it showed a record decrease in monthly home value from September to October 2008.</p>
<p>Home prices will continue to fall until they get their historically correct price relative to income. This is highly dependent on the market being served, but in general outside the coastal regions, homes are still over priced by anywhere from 15-50%. Still. The coastal regions see an even bigger disparity &#8211; 50-100% or more and California is the proving ground of how home prices cannot possibly outpace income to the level that they did there.</p>
<p>Most of us are sick of hearing it, because it keeps being predicted to have happened (or soon to happen) and they keep getting it wrong &#8211; when are we going to hit bottom? Forecasters are now saying it will be the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123003859646029853.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us">second half of 2009 or later</a>. Personally, they should stop trying to predict &#8220;the bottom&#8221; because we&#8217;re not going to get there until employment turns around. And it&#8217;s a fool&#8217;s errand to attempt to predict when employment is going to stop seeing losses. This means that it likely will actually be at least 2010 before a bottom even has a chance of occurring. A <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/01/05/housing-market-might-not-bottom-until-2010-report-says/">recent study indicates</a> that housing slumps like we&#8217;re in now last an average of 6 years &#8211; which means we&#8217;re only about half way through the current challenge.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s an interesting quote regarding new home inventory.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Home-building activity has declined so much that the backlog of unsold units is starting to be absorbed at a fairly rapid clip even in the face of such a slow sales environment,&#8221; said Morgan Stanley economist David Greenlaw, who added that inventories won&#8217;t drop to &#8220;manageable levels&#8221; for six to nine months.</p></blockquote>
<p>In support of Mr. Greenlaw&#8217;s statement &#8211; and that is the stunning decline in new home building &#8211; is this chart from Dr. Housing Bubble.</p>
<p><img class="alignnone" src="http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/monthly-new-home-sales-1963-2008.png" alt="" width="633" height="463" /></p>
<p>Unfortunately, the month&#8217;s supply of new homes continues to climb &#8211; as a nation we are at a 12-month supply of homes. A normal supply of homes is usually in the 6 to 7 month range. Even as the number of new homes coming to market faces steep decline, the supply continues to increase because of the number of distressed homes coming on to the market. Distressed homes now make up about 50% of the homes on the market.</p>
<p>This <a href="http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/investing-for-the-future-the-american-housing-market-the-united-states-has-enough-housing-for-years-will-this-economy-change-our-habits/">article is particularly good</a> at explaining where we&#8217;re at and where we&#8217;re going. The best part is the very last section, titled &#8220;The Daily Changes we will Face&#8221;.</p>
<p>Consider this blog an &#8220;executive summary&#8221; of the linked articles. If you have a keen interest in the residential real estate market, I would encourage you to read all of the linked stories in their entirety as they will give you a lot of helpful information on the 2009 residential real estate market.</p>
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		<title>AJC: Experts: North Georgia housing market in depression</title>
		<link>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2008/12/ajc-experts-north-georgia-housing-market-in-depression/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bluelandworks.com/2008/12/ajc-experts-north-georgia-housing-market-in-depression/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:34:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Blue Landworks</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Blue Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[atlanta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[residential market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.tayloranderson.com/?p=274</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That was the headline in one of today&#8217;s AJC stories. My reaction &#8211; no kidding. In fact, that&#8217;s the same words used by a client earlier this year. It was quite obvious that the problems were huge. In fact, they&#8217;re bigger than huge &#8211; they may be insurmountable for a long, long time. Take a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That was the headline in <a href="http://www.ajc.com/services/content/business/stories/2008/12/11/georgia_housing_market.html">one of today&#8217;s AJC stories</a>.</p>
<p>My reaction &#8211; no kidding.</p>
<p>In fact, that&#8217;s the same words used by a client earlier this year. It was quite obvious that the problems were huge. In fact, they&#8217;re bigger than huge &#8211; they may be insurmountable for a long, long time. Take a look at this statistic from Metrostudy, a group that tracks Atlanta&#8217;s housing industry.</p>
<blockquote><p>
James said sales closings were down 44 percent for the third quarter, compared to the same period last year, and housing starts had plunged 67 percent. The metro area also has about 148,000 lots with infrastructure but no homes — a 117-month supply, he said.</p></blockquote>
<p>A 117-month supply &#8211; or nearly 10 years. 148,000 lots without a home. Even in the best of times, that supply is at least 4 years. A healthy supply would be 18-24 months.</p>
<p>The rest of the article is a bit unnerving for the simple reason that the reactions to this problem are not realistic. Down payment assistance, as proposed by the Lt. Governor, won&#8217;t solve the problem of buyers not being able to get loans. The banks foreclosing and suing small builders is pointless. The idea of using the state employee&#8217;s retirement fund to buy residential projects only makes sense if they pay the right price, but using California as the example is bit silly given that economy is in worse shape that Georgia&#8217;s.</p>
<p>The answer is for the market to work through the supply. The prices will come down to the point where they will be bought &#8211; but it&#8217;s going to take time. Almost certainly years. But that&#8217;s the market. Speculation is the very definition of risk and a lot of people speculated on the metro Atlanta housing market. Some won and a lot lost. It&#8217;s unfortunate, but that&#8217;s the risk of chasing a speculative market.</p>
<p>The comments that follow the article are, for the most part, hilarious. People don&#8217;t realize the broad reach of the residential building market. It employees hundreds of thousands of people. It&#8217;s not just the developers and builders who are hurt in this market. It&#8217;s government employees, teachers, engineers, retailers, doctors &#8211; nearly every business gets an not insignificant percentage of their work as either a direct result of the housing industry or indirect result. It&#8217;s the furniture stores who sell new furniture to the new homeowner. It&#8217;s the road improvement projects that result of the sales tax from those furniture sales. It&#8217;s the new business that starts because the road as been improved and now people travel that road.</p>
<p>Metro-Atlanta is certainly facing some very tough times, but the market will eventually correct itself. We&#8217;ll be smarter, at least for a time, and we&#8217;ll make better decisions. That&#8217;s the lessons that successful businesses learn in times like these. The ones who don&#8217;t learn go out of business &#8211; and that&#8217;s the way it should be in a free market.</p>
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